Calling the election.
Kerry wins comfortably without Florida affecting the outcome at all. He wins the popular vote by more than 3% and wins enough electoral votes for their to be no significant dispute.
Bush, dumbfounded, declares martial law.
7 comments:
What part of that is a real prediction, and what part is a whimsical nightmare?
Kerry might win the popular vote, but does he have enough electoral votes? He has Cali, but who has New York? Florida is the key. Ohio is also important. Who cares who gets Iowa?
New York is in the bag for Kerry, T-Clog. Looks like Minnesota has finally swung comfortably to Kerry. Swing states are looking decent for the him, but Florida, Ohio, & Pennsylvania are definitely the keys. If I could have Kerry in the lead right now in two of the three, it would be Ohio & Pennsylvania, even though Florida has the most electoral votes. My reasoning was just posted on Social Conscience.
The first part was the real prediction.
Kerry wins Ohio and Pennsylvania - game over. He may win every state that is currently within the margin of error, including those states Bush is said to be leading.
Why am I so confident?
The polls don't take newly registered voters into account. If the turnout is truly 120M then the Democrats are at a huge advantage.
No incumbent since 1952 has ever gotten a greater % of votes than his approval rating. Bush is currently around 47%.
Undecided voters vote strongly for the challenger when they finally make up their minds.
Democratic registration is way ahead of Republican.
More people hate Bush than love him.
No incumbent has ever won after a weekend where the Redskins lost.
I'm aware of all the stuff you just mentioned, and for that reason, I'm cautiously optimistic. But so many polls say so many different things, and there seems to be so many x-factors. Very cautious with the optimism.
I'm overwhelmingly optimistic.
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